Peramalan Penjualan Olein Curah di Perusahaan Pengolahan Kelapa Sawit Menggunakan Double Moving Average

Abstract

Bulk  olein  is  one  of  the  products  produced  by  Palm  Oil  Processing  Company. Bulk cooking oil controls 75 percent of the production market share in Indonesia and about 77.5 percent of households in Indonesia use bulk cooking oil because the price is cheaper than packaged cooking oil. Demand for olein in the future is predicted to be continued to increase, so it is necessary to estimate future sales so that production activities become more effective and efficient. The method used in this study is the double moving average (DMA), which is one of the forecasting methods  with  data  that has  a  trend.  The  calculation  will  be  done  by  comparing the  result  of  3  moving, 4  moving  and 5  moving.  Forecasting  error  is  calculated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The calculation results show that the average MAPE from DMA with 5 moving has the smallest value. To verify these results, an analysis of the processed data was carried out, namely looking for data with the furthest distance from the linear line, namely t3 data and t7 data. The  data  is  omitted  in  data  processing  and  then  the  MAPE  error  value  is recalculated. The results obtained are that DMA with 3 moving results have the smallest  error,  which  is  11.863 percent.  For  this  reason,  the  chosen  forecasting calculation is a double moving average with 3 moving.